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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 12th to 16th Sept 2016).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of ept 2016 expiry last recorded trade is 8903, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 12th to 16th Sept 2016

1 SD Price Range119.1
NIFTY8903
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23628.118931.118874.89
0.38245.58948.58857.5
0.559.558962.558843.45
0.61873.68976.68829.4
0.78693.618996.618809.39
0.888105.769008.768797.24
1.236147.219050.218755.79
1.618192.719095.718710.29
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 8931.11, Successful cross-over above 8976.6 will target rise till 9008.76-9050.21-9095.71.

DOWNTREND conformation 8874.89, Successful fall below 8829.4 will trigger fall till 8797.24-8755.79-8710.29

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 8976.6 and all down move invites short covering at 8829.4 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8976.6 to 8829.4

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 8931.11
  • STOP-LOSS 8874.89,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 8874.89, for initial target 8976.6

OR
  • Selling future below 8874.89
  • STOP-LOSS 8931.11,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 8931.11, for initial target 8829.4 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 8931.11 cross then you buy the nifty future with 8874.89 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 8976.6 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 8948.5 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 8996.61 achieved, revise the stop loss to 8962.55 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 9008.76 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 8996.61. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 8874.89 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 8874.89 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANK NIFTY Future trend for 12th to 16th September 2016

1 SD Price Range381.84
BANK NIFTY20349
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23690.1120439.1120258.89
0.382145.8620494.8620203.14
0.5190.9220539.9220158.08
0.618235.9820584.9820113.02
0.786300.1320649.1320048.87
0.888339.0820688.0820009.92
1.236471.9620820.9619877.04
1.618617.8220966.8219731.18

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 20494.86 with stop loss 20203.14 for initial target 20584.98. Use the 20439.11 put option buy with long future or 20966.82 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 20203.14 hedge it with 20158.08 call or sell below19731.18 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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