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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 29th August TO 2nd September).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of eptember expiry last recorded trade is 8630, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 29th August TO 2nd September

1 SD Price Range126.09
NIFTY8630
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23629.768659.768600.24
0.38248.168678.168581.84
0.563.048693.048566.96
0.61877.928707.928552.08
0.78699.18729.18530.9
0.888111.968741.968518.04
1.236155.848785.848474.16
1.618204.018834.018425.99
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 8659.76, Successful cross-over above 8707.92 will target rise till 8741.96-8785.84-8834.01.

DOWNTREND conformation 8600.24, Successful fall below 8552.08 will trigger fall till 8518.04-8474.16-8425.99

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 8707.92 and all down move invites short covering at 8552.08 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8707.92 to 8552.08

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 8659.76
  • STOP-LOSS 8600.24,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 8600.24, for initial target 8707.92

OR
  • Selling future below 8600.24
  • STOP-LOSS 8659.76,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 8659.76, for initial target 8552.08 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 8659.76 cross then you buy the nifty future with 8600.24 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 8707.92 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 8678.16 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 8729.1 achieved, revise the stop loss to 8693.04 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 8741.96 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 8729.1. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 8600.24 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 8600.24 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANK NIFTY Future trend for 29th August to 2nd September

1 SD Price Range323.47
BANK NIFTY19320
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23676.3419396.3419243.66
0.382123.5719443.5719196.43
0.5161.7419481.7419158.26
0.618199.9119519.9119120.09
0.786254.2519574.2519065.75
0.888287.2419607.2419032.76
1.236399.8119719.8118920.19
1.618523.3819843.3818796.62

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 19443.57 with stop loss 19196.43 for initial target 19519.91. Use the 19396.34 put option buy with long future or 19843.38 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 19196.43 hedge it with 19158.26 call or sell below18796.62 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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