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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 5th to 9th Feb 2018).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of Feb 2018 expiry last recorded trade is 10740.65, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

Nifty Future trend for 5th to 9th Feb 2018

1 SD Price Range149.55
Nifty10740.65
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23635.2910775.9410705.36
0.38257.1310797.7810683.52
0.574.7810815.4310665.87
0.61892.4210833.0710648.23
0.786117.5510858.210623.1
0.888132.810873.4510607.85
1.236184.8510925.510555.8
1.618241.9810982.6310498.67
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 10775.94, Successful cross-over above 10833.07 will target rise till 10873.45-10925.5-10982.63.

DOWNTREND conformation 10705.36, Successful fall below 10648.23 will trigger fall till 10607.85-10555.8-10498.67

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10833.07 and all down move invites short covering at 10648.23 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10833.07 to 10648.23

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 10775.94
  • STOP-LOSS 10705.36,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10705.36, for initial target 10833.07

OR
  • Selling future below 10705.36
  • STOP-LOSS 10775.94,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10775.94, for initial target 10648.23 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week Nifty future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10775.94 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10705.36 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10833.07 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10797.78 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10858.2 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10815.43 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10873.45 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10858.2. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10705.36 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10705.36 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANKNIFTY Future trend for 5th to 9th Feb 2018

1 SD Price Range567.24
BANKNIFTY26436
Up TrendDown Trend
0.236133.8726569.8726302.13
0.382216.6926652.6926219.31
0.5283.6226719.6226152.38
0.618350.5526786.5526085.45
0.786445.8526881.8525990.15
0.888503.7126939.7125932.29
1.236701.1127137.1125734.89
1.618917.827353.825518.2

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 26652.69 with stop loss 26219.31 for initial target 26786.55. Use the 26569.87 put option buy with long future or 27353.8 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 26219.31 hedge it with 26152.38 call or sell below25518.2 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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