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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 15th to 19th Jan 2018).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of Jan 2018 expiry last recorded trade is 10684.20, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

Nifty Future trend for 15th to 19th Jan 2018

1 SD Price Range102.83
Nifty10684.20
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23624.2710708.4710659.93
0.38239.2810723.4810644.92
0.551.4210735.6210632.78
0.61863.5510747.7510620.65
0.78680.8310765.0310603.37
0.88891.3210775.5210592.88
1.236127.110811.310557.1
1.618166.3810850.5810517.82
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 10708.47, Successful cross-over above 10747.75 will target rise till 10775.52-10811.3-10850.58.

DOWNTREND conformation 10659.93, Successful fall below 10620.65 will trigger fall till 10592.88-10557.1-10517.82

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10747.75 and all down move invites short covering at 10620.65 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10747.75 to 10620.65

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 10708.47
  • STOP-LOSS 10659.93,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10659.93, for initial target 10747.75

OR
  • Selling future below 10659.93
  • STOP-LOSS 10708.47,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10708.47, for initial target 10620.65 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week Nifty future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10708.47 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10659.93 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10747.75 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10723.48 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10765.03 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10735.62 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10775.52 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10765.03. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10659.93 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10659.93 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANKNIFTY Future trend for 15th to 19th Jan 2018

1 SD Price Range251.26
BANKNIFTY25735
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23659.325794.325675.7
0.38295.9825830.9825639.02
0.5125.6325860.6325609.37
0.618155.2825890.2825579.72
0.786197.4925932.4925537.51
0.888223.1225958.1225511.88
1.236310.5526045.5525424.45
1.618406.5326141.5325328.47

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 25830.98 with stop loss 25639.02 for initial target 25890.28. Use the 25794.3 put option buy with long future or 26141.53 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 25639.02 hedge it with 25609.37 call or sell below25328.47 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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