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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 8th to 12th Jan 2018).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of Jan 2018 expiry last recorded trade is 10578.20, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

Nifty Future trend for 8th to 12th Jan 2018

1 SD Price Range114.56
Nifty10578.20
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23627.0410605.2410551.16
0.38243.7610621.9610534.44
0.557.2810635.4810520.92
0.61870.81064910507.4
0.78690.0410668.2410488.16
0.888101.7310679.9310476.47
1.236141.5910719.7910436.61
1.618185.3510763.5510392.85
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 10605.24, Successful cross-over above 10649 will target rise till 10679.93-10719.79-10763.55.

DOWNTREND conformation 10551.16, Successful fall below 10507.4 will trigger fall till 10476.47-10436.61-10392.85

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10649 and all down move invites short covering at 10507.4 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10649 to 10507.4

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 10605.24
  • STOP-LOSS 10551.16,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10551.16, for initial target 10649

OR
  • Selling future below 10551.16
  • STOP-LOSS 10605.24,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10605.24, for initial target 10507.4 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week Nifty future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10605.24 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10551.16 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10649 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10621.96 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10668.24 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10635.48 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10679.93 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10668.24. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10551.16 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10551.16 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANKNIFTY Future trend for 8th to 12th Jan 2018

1 SD Price Range306.79
BANKNIFTY25661.50
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23672.425733.925589.1
0.382117.225778.725544.3
0.5153.425814.925508.1
0.618189.625851.125471.9
0.786241.1425902.6425420.36
0.888272.4325933.9325389.07
1.236379.226040.725282.3
1.618496.3926157.8925165.11

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 25778.7 with stop loss 25544.3 for initial target 25851.1. Use the 25733.9 put option buy with long future or 26157.89 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 25544.3 hedge it with 25508.1 call or sell below25165.11 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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