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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 18th to 22nd Dec 2017).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of Dec 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 10356.60, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 18th to 22nd Dec 2017

1 SD Price Range181
NIFTY10356.60
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23642.7210399.3210313.88
0.38269.1410425.7410287.46
0.590.510447.110266.1
0.618111.8610468.4610244.74
0.786142.2710498.8710214.33
0.888160.7310517.3310195.87
1.236223.7210580.3210132.88
1.618292.8610649.4610063.74
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 10399.32, Successful cross-over above 10468.46 will target rise till 10517.33-10580.32-10649.46.

DOWNTREND conformation 10313.88, Successful fall below 10244.74 will trigger fall till 10195.87-10132.88-10063.74

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10468.46 and all down move invites short covering at 10244.74 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10468.46 to 10244.74

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 10399.32
  • STOP-LOSS 10313.88,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10313.88, for initial target 10468.46

OR
  • Selling future below 10313.88
  • STOP-LOSS 10399.32,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10399.32, for initial target 10244.74 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10399.32 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10313.88 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10468.46 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10425.74 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10498.87 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10447.1 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10517.33 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10498.87. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10313.88 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10313.88 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANKNIFTY Future trend for 18th to 22nd Dec 2017

1 SD Price Range486.45
BANKNIFTY25528
Up TrendDown Trend
0.236114.825642.825413.2
0.382185.8225713.8225342.18
0.5243.2225771.2225284.78
0.618300.6325828.6325227.37
0.786382.3525910.3525145.65
0.888431.9725959.9725096.03
1.236601.2526129.2524926.75
1.618787.0826315.0824740.92

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 25713.82 with stop loss 25342.18 for initial target 25828.63. Use the 25642.8 put option buy with long future or 26315.08 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 25342.18 hedge it with 25284.78 call or sell below24740.92 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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