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1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 11th to 15th Dec 2017).
What is 1SD formula?
Nifty future of Dec 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 10290, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).
NIFTY Future trend for 11th to 15th Dec 2017
|1 SD Price Range||139.94|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
Trend expectation as per 1SD method:
UPTREND conformation 10323.02, Successful cross-over above 10376.48 will target rise till 10414.26-10462.96-10516.42.
DOWNTREND conformation 10256.98, Successful fall below 10203.52 will trigger fall till 10165.74-10117.04-10063.58
RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10376.48 and all down move invites short covering at 10203.52 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10376.48 to 10203.52
What trade decision one trader should take?:
- Buying above 10323.02
- STOP-LOSS 10256.98,
- HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10256.98, for initial target 10376.48
- Selling future below 10256.98
- STOP-LOSS 10323.02,
- HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10323.02, for initial target 10203.52 is advisable.
Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.
How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?
On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10323.02 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10256.98 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10376.48 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10343.46 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10399.99 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10359.97 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10414.26 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10399.99. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.
After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10256.98 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10256.98 call long.
If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.
You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.
Get our complete option course to learn options.
Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.
BANKNIFTY Future trend for 11th to 15th Dec 2017
|1 SD Price Range||379.76|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 25513.07 with stop loss 25222.93 for initial target 25602.69. Use the 25457.62 put option buy with long future or 25982.46 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 25222.93 hedge it with 25178.12 call or sell below24753.54 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.
Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.
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