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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 30 Oct to 3 Nov 2017).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of Nov 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 10360, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 30 Oct to 3 Nov 2017

1 SD Price Range101.72
NIFTY10360
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23624.0110384.0110335.99
0.38238.8610398.8610321.14
0.550.8610410.8610309.14
0.61862.8610422.8610297.14
0.78679.9510439.9510280.05
0.88890.3310450.3310269.67
1.236125.7310485.7310234.27
1.618164.5810524.5810195.42
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 10384.01, Successful cross-over above 10422.86 will target rise till 10450.33-10485.73-10524.58.

DOWNTREND conformation 10335.99, Successful fall below 10297.14 will trigger fall till 10269.67-10234.27-10195.42

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10422.86 and all down move invites short covering at 10297.14 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10422.86 to 10297.14

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 10384.01
  • STOP-LOSS 10335.99,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10335.99, for initial target 10422.86

OR
  • Selling future below 10335.99
  • STOP-LOSS 10384.01,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10384.01, for initial target 10297.14 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10384.01 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10335.99 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10422.86 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10398.86 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10439.95 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10410.86 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10450.33 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10439.95. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10335.99 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10335.99 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANK NIFTY Future trend for 30 Oct to 3 Nov 2017

1 SD Price Range352.52
BANK NIFTY24981
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23683.225064.224897.8
0.382134.6625115.6624846.34
0.5176.2625157.2624804.74
0.618217.8625198.8624763.14
0.786277.0825258.0824703.92
0.888313.0425294.0424667.96
1.236435.7225416.7224545.28
1.618570.3825551.3824410.62

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 25115.66 with stop loss 24846.34 for initial target 25198.86. Use the 25064.2 put option buy with long future or 25551.38 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 24846.34 hedge it with 24804.74 call or sell below24410.62 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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