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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 16th to 18th October 2017).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of ber 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 10194, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 16th to 18th October 2017

1 SD Price Range120.14
NIFTY10194
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23628.3510222.3510165.65
0.38245.8910239.8910148.11
0.560.0710254.0710133.93
0.61874.2410268.2410119.76
0.78694.4310288.4310099.57
0.888106.6810300.6810087.32
1.236148.4910342.4910045.51
1.618194.3810388.389999.62
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 10222.35, Successful cross-over above 10268.24 will target rise till 10300.68-10342.49-10388.38.

DOWNTREND conformation 10165.65, Successful fall below 10119.76 will trigger fall till 10087.32-10045.51-9999.62

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10268.24 and all down move invites short covering at 10119.76 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10268.24 to 10119.76

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 10222.35
  • STOP-LOSS 10165.65,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10165.65, for initial target 10268.24

OR
  • Selling future below 10165.65
  • STOP-LOSS 10222.35,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10222.35, for initial target 10119.76 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10222.35 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10165.65 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10268.24 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10239.89 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10288.43 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10254.07 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10300.68 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10288.43. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10165.65 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10165.65 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANK NIFTY Future trend for 16th to 18th October 2017

1 SD Price Range269.61
BANK NIFTY24738
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23663.6324801.6324674.37
0.382102.9924840.9924635.01
0.5134.8124872.8124603.19
0.618166.6224904.6224571.38
0.786211.9224949.9224526.08
0.888239.4224977.4224498.58
1.236333.2425071.2424404.76
1.618436.2325174.2324301.77

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 24840.99 with stop loss 24635.01 for initial target 24904.62. Use the 24801.63 put option buy with long future or 25174.23 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 24635.01 hedge it with 24603.19 call or sell below24301.77 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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