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1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 4th to 8th Sep 2017).
What is 1SD formula?
Nifty future of Sep 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 10004, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).
Nifty Future trend for 4th to 8th Sep 2017
|1 SD Price Range||107.23|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
Trend expectation as per 1SD method:
UPTREND conformation 10029.31, Successful cross-over above 10070.27 will target rise till 10099.22-10136.54-10177.5.
DOWNTREND conformation 9978.69, Successful fall below 9937.73 will trigger fall till 9908.78-9871.46-9830.5
RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10070.27 and all down move invites short covering at 9937.73 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10070.27 to 9937.73
What trade decision one trader should take?:
- Buying above 10029.31
- STOP-LOSS 9978.69,
- HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 9978.69, for initial target 10070.27
- Selling future below 9978.69
- STOP-LOSS 10029.31,
- HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10029.31, for initial target 9937.73 is advisable.
Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.
How to trade this week Nifty future levels?
On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10029.31 cross then you buy the nifty future with 9978.69 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10070.27 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10044.96 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10088.28 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10057.62 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10099.22 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10088.28. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.
After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 9978.69 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 9978.69 call long.
If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.
You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.
Get our complete option course to learn options.
Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.
Bank Nifty Future trend for 4th to 8th Sep 2017
|1 SD Price Range||319.05|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 24605.28 with stop loss 24361.52 for initial target 24680.58. Use the 24558.7 put option buy with long future or 24999.63 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 24361.52 hedge it with 24323.87 call or sell below23967.17 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.
Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.
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