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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 12th to 16th June 2017).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of une 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 9681, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

Nifty Future trend for 12th to 16th June 2017

1 SD Price Range81.51
Nifty9681
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23619.249700.249661.76
0.38231.149712.149649.86
0.540.769721.769640.24
0.61850.379731.379630.63
0.78664.079745.079616.93
0.88872.389753.389608.62
1.236100.759781.759580.25
1.618131.899812.899549.11
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 9700.24, Successful cross-over above 9731.37 will target rise till 9753.38-9781.75-9812.89.

DOWNTREND conformation 9661.76, Successful fall below 9630.63 will trigger fall till 9608.62-9580.25-9549.11

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 9731.37 and all down move invites short covering at 9630.63 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 9731.37 to 9630.63

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 9700.24
  • STOP-LOSS 9661.76,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 9661.76, for initial target 9731.37

OR
  • Selling future below 9661.76
  • STOP-LOSS 9700.24,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 9700.24, for initial target 9630.63 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week Nifty future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 9700.24 cross then you buy the nifty future with 9661.76 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 9731.37 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 9712.14 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 9745.07 achieved, revise the stop loss to 9721.76 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 9753.38 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 9745.07. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 9661.76 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 9661.76 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

Bank Nifty Future trend for 12th to 16th June 2017

1 SD Price Range212.09
Bank Nifty23634
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23650.0523684.0523583.95
0.38281.0223715.0223552.98
0.5106.0423740.0423527.96
0.618131.0723765.0723502.93
0.786166.723800.723467.3
0.888188.3323822.3323445.67
1.236262.1423896.1423371.86
1.618343.1623977.1623290.84

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 23715.02 with stop loss 23552.98 for initial target 23765.07. Use the 23684.05 put option buy with long future or 23977.16 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 23552.98 hedge it with 23527.96 call or sell below23290.84 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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