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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY FUTURE future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 5th to 9th June 2017).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of une 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 9645, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY FUTURE Future trend for 5th to 9th June 2017

1 SD Price Range105.92
NIFTY FUTURE9645
Up TrendDown Trend
0.2362596709620
0.38240.469685.469604.54
0.552.969697.969592.04
0.61865.469710.469579.54
0.78683.259728.259561.75
0.88894.069739.069550.94
1.236130.929775.929514.08
1.618171.389816.389473.62
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 9670, Successful cross-over above 9710.46 will target rise till 9739.06-9775.92-9816.38.

DOWNTREND conformation 9620, Successful fall below 9579.54 will trigger fall till 9550.94-9514.08-9473.62

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 9710.46 and all down move invites short covering at 9579.54 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 9710.46 to 9579.54

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 9670
  • STOP-LOSS 9620,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 9620, for initial target 9710.46

OR
  • Selling future below 9620
  • STOP-LOSS 9670,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 9670, for initial target 9579.54 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY FUTURE future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 9670 cross then you buy the nifty future with 9620 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 9710.46 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 9685.46 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 9728.25 achieved, revise the stop loss to 9697.96 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 9739.06 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 9728.25. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 9620 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 9620 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE Future trend for 5th to 9th June 2017

1 SD Price Range235.28
BANK NIFTY FUTURE23337.60
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23655.5323393.1323282.07
0.38289.8823427.4823247.72
0.5117.6423455.2423219.96
0.618145.42348323192.2
0.786184.9323522.5323152.67
0.888208.9323546.5323128.67
1.236290.8123628.4123046.79
1.618380.6923718.2922956.91

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 23427.48 with stop loss 23247.72 for initial target 23483. Use the 23393.13 put option buy with long future or 23718.29 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 23247.72 hedge it with 23219.96 call or sell below22956.91 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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