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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 2nd to 5th May 2017).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of May 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 9330.95, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 2nd to 5th May 2017

1 SD Price Range87.22
NIFTY9330.95
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23620.589351.539310.37
0.38233.329364.279297.63
0.543.619374.569287.34
0.61853.99384.859277.05
0.78668.569399.519262.39
0.88877.459408.49253.5
1.236107.819438.769223.14
1.618141.139472.089189.82
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 9351.53, Successful cross-over above 9384.85 will target rise till 9408.4-9438.76-9472.08.

DOWNTREND conformation 9310.37, Successful fall below 9277.05 will trigger fall till 9253.5-9223.14-9189.82

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 9384.85 and all down move invites short covering at 9277.05 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 9384.85 to 9277.05

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 9351.53
  • STOP-LOSS 9310.37,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 9310.37, for initial target 9384.85

OR
  • Selling future below 9310.37
  • STOP-LOSS 9351.53,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 9351.53, for initial target 9277.05 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 9351.53 cross then you buy the nifty future with 9310.37 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 9384.85 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 9364.27 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 9399.51 achieved, revise the stop loss to 9374.56 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 9408.4 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 9399.51. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 9310.37 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 9310.37 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANK NIFTY Future trend for 2nd to 5th May 2017

1 SD Price Range263.01
BANK NIFTY22370
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23662.0722432.0722307.93
0.382100.4722470.4722269.53
0.5131.5122501.5122238.49
0.618162.5422532.5422207.46
0.786206.7322576.7322163.27
0.888233.5622603.5622136.44
1.236325.0822695.0822044.92
1.618425.5522795.5521944.45

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 22470.47 with stop loss 22269.53 for initial target 22532.54. Use the 22432.07 put option buy with long future or 22795.55 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 22269.53 hedge it with 22238.49 call or sell below21944.45 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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