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1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 10th to 14th April 2017).
What is 1SD formula?
Nifty future of ril 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 9217, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).
Nifty Future trend for 10th to 14th April 2017
|1 SD Price Range||94.58|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
Trend expectation as per 1SD method:
UPTREND conformation 9239.32, Successful cross-over above 9275.45 will target rise till 9300.99-9333.9-9370.03.
DOWNTREND conformation 9194.68, Successful fall below 9158.55 will trigger fall till 9133.01-9100.1-9063.97
RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 9275.45 and all down move invites short covering at 9158.55 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 9275.45 to 9158.55
What trade decision one trader should take?:
- Buying above 9239.32
- STOP-LOSS 9194.68,
- HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 9194.68, for initial target 9275.45
- Selling future below 9194.68
- STOP-LOSS 9239.32,
- HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 9239.32, for initial target 9158.55 is advisable.
Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.
How to trade this week Nifty future levels?
On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 9239.32 cross then you buy the nifty future with 9194.68 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 9275.45 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 9253.13 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 9291.34 achieved, revise the stop loss to 9264.29 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 9300.99 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 9291.34. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.
After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 9194.68 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 9194.68 call long.
If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.
You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.
Get our complete option course to learn options.
Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.
Bank Nifty Future trend for 10th to 14th April 2017
|1 SD Price Range||245.21|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 21530.67 with stop loss 21343.33 for initial target 21588.54. Use the 21494.87 put option buy with long future or 21833.76 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 21343.33 hedge it with 21314.39 call or sell below21040.24 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.
Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.
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