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1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 27th to 30th March 2017).
What is 1SD formula?
Nifty future of rch 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 9111, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).
Nifty Future trend for 27th to 30th March 2017
|1 SD Price Range||107.88|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
Trend expectation as per 1SD method:
UPTREND conformation 9136.46, Successful cross-over above 9177.67 will target rise till 9206.8-9244.34-9285.55.
DOWNTREND conformation 9085.54, Successful fall below 9044.33 will trigger fall till 9015.2-8977.66-8936.45
RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 9177.67 and all down move invites short covering at 9044.33 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 9177.67 to 9044.33
What trade decision one trader should take?:
- Buying above 9136.46
- STOP-LOSS 9085.54,
- HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 9085.54, for initial target 9177.67
- Selling future below 9085.54
- STOP-LOSS 9136.46,
- HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 9136.46, for initial target 9044.33 is advisable.
Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.
How to trade this week Nifty future levels?
On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 9136.46 cross then you buy the nifty future with 9085.54 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 9177.67 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 9152.21 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 9195.79 achieved, revise the stop loss to 9164.94 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 9206.8 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 9195.79. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.
After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 9085.54 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 9085.54 call long.
If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.
You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.
Get our complete option course to learn options.
Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.
Bank nifty Future trend for 27th to 30th March 2017
|1 SD Price Range||314.2|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 21265.03 with stop loss 21024.97 for initial target 21339.18. Use the 21219.15 put option buy with long future or 21653.38 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 21024.97 hedge it with 20987.9 call or sell below20636.62 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.
Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.
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