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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 20th to 24th Feb 2017).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of Feb 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 8826, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

Nifty Future trend for 20th to 24th Feb 2017

1 SD Price Range113.43
Nifty8826
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23626.778852.778799.23
0.38243.338869.338782.67
0.556.718882.718769.29
0.61870.18896.18755.9
0.78689.158915.158736.85
0.888100.728926.728725.28
1.236140.28966.28685.8
1.618183.529009.528642.48
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 8852.77, Successful cross-over above 8896.1 will target rise till 8926.72-8966.2-9009.52.

DOWNTREND conformation 8799.23, Successful fall below 8755.9 will trigger fall till 8725.28-8685.8-8642.48

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 8896.1 and all down move invites short covering at 8755.9 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8896.1 to 8755.9

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 8852.77
  • STOP-LOSS 8799.23,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 8799.23, for initial target 8896.1

OR
  • Selling future below 8799.23
  • STOP-LOSS 8852.77,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 8852.77, for initial target 8755.9 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week Nifty future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 8852.77 cross then you buy the nifty future with 8799.23 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 8896.1 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 8869.33 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 8915.15 achieved, revise the stop loss to 8882.71 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 8926.72 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 8915.15. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 8799.23 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 8799.23 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

Bank Nifty Future trend for 20th to 24th Feb 2017

1 SD Price Range303.22
Bank Nifty20540
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23671.5620611.5620468.44
0.382115.8320655.8320424.17
0.5151.6120691.6120388.39
0.618187.3920727.3920352.61
0.786238.3320778.3320301.67
0.888269.2620809.2620270.74
1.236374.7820914.7820165.22
1.618490.6121030.6120049.39

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 20655.83 with stop loss 20424.17 for initial target 20727.39. Use the 20611.56 put option buy with long future or 21030.61 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 20424.17 hedge it with 20388.39 call or sell below20049.39 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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