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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 30th Jan to 3rd Feb 2017).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of Feb 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 8672, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 30th Jan to 3rd Feb 2017

1 SD Price Range146.63
NIFTY8672
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23634.618706.618637.39
0.38256.018728.018615.99
0.573.328745.328598.68
0.61890.628762.628581.38
0.786115.268787.268556.74
0.888130.218802.218541.79
1.236181.248853.248490.76
1.618237.268909.268434.74
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 8706.61, Successful cross-over above 8762.62 will target rise till 8802.21-8853.24-8909.26.

DOWNTREND conformation 8637.39, Successful fall below 8581.38 will trigger fall till 8541.79-8490.76-8434.74

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 8762.62 and all down move invites short covering at 8581.38 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8762.62 to 8581.38

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 8706.61
  • STOP-LOSS 8637.39,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 8637.39, for initial target 8762.62

OR
  • Selling future below 8637.39
  • STOP-LOSS 8706.61,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 8706.61, for initial target 8581.38 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 8706.61 cross then you buy the nifty future with 8637.39 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 8762.62 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 8728.01 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 8787.26 achieved, revise the stop loss to 8745.32 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 8802.21 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 8787.26. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 8637.39 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 8637.39 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANKNIFTY Future trend for 30th Jan to 3rd Feb 2017

1 SD Price Range457.46
BANKNIFTY19804
Up TrendDown Trend
0.236107.9619911.9619696.04
0.382174.7519978.7519629.25
0.5228.7320032.7319575.27
0.618282.7120086.7119521.29
0.786359.5620163.5619444.44
0.888406.2220210.2219397.78
1.236565.4220369.4219238.58
1.618740.1720544.1719063.83

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 19978.75 with stop loss 19629.25 for initial target 20086.71. Use the 19911.96 put option buy with long future or 20544.17 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 19629.25 hedge it with 19575.27 call or sell below19063.83 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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