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1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 90 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 100th week (i.e. 16th to 20th January 2017).
What is 1SD formula?
Nifty future of ary 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 8420.50, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).
Nifty Future trend for 16th to 20th January 2017
|1 SD Price Range||115.45|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
Trend expectation as per 1SD method:
UPTREND conformation 8447.75, Successful cross-over above 8491.85 will target rise till 8523.02-8563.19-8607.29.
DOWNTREND conformation 8393.25, Successful fall below 8349.15 will trigger fall till 8317.98-8277.81-8233.71
RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 8491.85 and all down move invites short covering at 8349.15 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8491.85 to 8349.15
What trade decision one trader should take?:
- Buying above 8447.75
- STOP-LOSS 8393.25,
- HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 8393.25, for initial target 8491.85
- Selling future below 8393.25
- STOP-LOSS 8447.75,
- HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 8447.75, for initial target 8349.15 is advisable.
Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.
How to trade this week Nifty future levels?
On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 8447.75 cross then you buy the nifty future with 8393.25 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 8491.85 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 8464.6 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 8511.24 achieved, revise the stop loss to 8478.22 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 8523.02 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 8511.24. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.
After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 8393.25 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 8393.25 call long.
If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.
You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.
Get our complete option course to learn options.
Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.
Bank Nifty Future trend for 16th to 20th January 2017
|1 SD Price Range||298.96|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 19084.2 with stop loss 18855.8 for initial target 19154.76. Use the 19040.55 put option buy with long future or 19453.72 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 18855.8 hedge it with 18820.52 call or sell below18486.28 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.
Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.
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